Every Poll Shows Romney is Winning

...when adjusted for oversampling. A recent graph released by NumbersMuncher on twitter shows the (mainly) liberal bias of polls. If we exclude the Rasmussen, every poll oversamples Democrats by at least 5%. The Dem corps poll has an oversampling of 11%! Now, how can they get away with this? They pick and choose their data carefully: they use voter turnout data from the 2008 election, which had Democrats turning up at the polls in record numbers and a depressed Republican voter base. The result was a 7% advantage in voter turnout in favor of the Democrats. So these pollsters claim they are trying accurately represent voter turnout based on one heavily outlying data point!

Now we get to the good stuff: If you adjust every poll for this oversampling and show an equal voter turnout for both sides, every poll shows Romney winning by at least 1 point, even the Rasmussen. If you do this with the recent ABC/Wash Post poll, Romney is winning by 9 points!

This situation is only if turnout is equal between the groups. If turnout is similar to the 2010 elections, (or the ongoing campaign rallies where the current president is having trouble filling venues much smaller than those he packed to capacity in 2008) then Romney wins in a landslide.

So what does this mean for my fellow conservatives? All you have to do is show up and get your friends to show up and we've won!

Ideals: Communism vs Capitalism

Capitalism and communism have been in a battle for the political soul of the earth since WWI. But what are they? What does each stand for?
Capitalism is about individualism. It gives the rights and responsibilities to the individual. Communism is all about the collective. The rights and responsibilities belong to the administrator.
Capitalism gives every person the right to pursue happiness and profit for their achievements. Communism takes the collective profit from all the achievements and then distributes those among everyone.
Capitalism functions best when government is small and the individuals all take ownership of their own works and lives. Communism requires a large centralized government which controls the lives of its constituents.
Capitalism nuetralizes corruption through competition. Communism centralizes corruption though governance.
Capitalism is the invisible hand. Communism is the heavy hand.
Capitalism creates wealth in waves. Communism depletes wealth in waves.

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Provocation

I have 2 younger sisters. When we would go on long car trips the older one would secretly poke the younger. Incessantly. This would understandably provoke an outburst, causing my parents to yell at the younger one, telling her not to freak out. All would be quiet. Then the poking would start again and the whole cycle would repeat.

I see this same kind of situation unfolding on the news and at work: Protestors just sit somewhere they aren't supposed to, such as a busy street, chanting, doing what protestors do. But then they have to keep pushing, sometimes literally, at the police or authority figure standing guard. At some point you have to stand your ground. As soon as you do, the protestors in the back start calling out about police brutality and the media enjoys a couple of days talking about how poor innocent protestors were beat by police.
In this situation there are three wrongs committed and I will list them in order of magnitude: The Pokers provocation; the Callers, both those present and those reporting for skewing things against the Provoked; and the harsh reaction to provocation.
Now I have three pieces of advice. To the Provoked: I know it can be hard, and awfully annoying to deal with whiny protestors, but do we need to beat them with clubs? That's what they want you to do so they can get sympathy for their cause. Why play into their hands? Now I know there may be times when force is necessary, but please use discretion and keep your head. Don't get angry and sink to the level of the protestor.
To the Pokers: Get over yourselves and grow up! Stop using childish tactics for your concerns and try to convince people with real arguments, not immature whining. No one owes you a living. It's up to you to make of your life what you can, not the job of other, stronger people to hand you a silver platter. Life may be hard, but don't forget it is also incredibly rewarding and kind, especially here in the USA.
Finally to the Callers: Quit kidding yourselves. If you had an ounce of integrity you would see both sides of the argument, but every video I've seen in the news starts not at the beginning during the provocation phase, but at the lash out phase. You may believe they have a quicker breaking point than they should, but everyone has one, including you. Even you would break under the stress of being outnumbered and surrounded on every side with people that have been chanting for your death slowly closing in on you and everything you've sworn to protect.

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Discrimination

Defining marriage as between a man and a woman is not discrimination. When the law is applied the same to each person, it is not discrimination, just as laws prohibiting drugs are not discriminatory against drug dealers or users of drugs. Now, there are many other arguments for or against both sides, but the law itself is not discriminatory. The law itself is blind. You could argue that the people who framed it are discriminating by trying to marginalize people in society, but the law itself is not discrimination, anymore than laws prohibiting marriage to the young or to your cousin. You must argue for or against the purpose of the law. So please, stop calling these marriage laws discriminatory. They are not.

P.S. This post is neither condemning these laws, nor confirming them, so if you are going to start a debate as to the whether those with homosexual tendencies should be allowed to marry, this is not the place. This is a statement of whether the laws themselves are discriminatory. If you have a comment about that, then by all means comment below.

Personhood

Personhood is at the center of much of the sociopolitical debate today. This includes who is a person and what rights does a person have.

On the who is a person front, we have pro-choicers saying a fetus is not a person, extremists painting different races, religions, sexual orientations etc. As not being a person, PETA and many vegans saying animals are people, Australian bioethicists claiming infants are not people, Mothers claiming their mentally handicapped children are not people, and the list goes on.

On the rights side, many modern ideologies are based on what is a person's right and what is not: communists, socialists and others believe a person has a right to everything needed for them to live a comfortable life regardless of whether they have worked for them or not; Tea Partiers and libertarians believe they only have a right to pursue such things; Islamists and other extremist groups (e.g. neonazis) believe they have a right to live only amongst those who share all their beliefs and/or physical features.

When you get into a debate or discussion, please remember that if you do not agree on these basic tenets of societal life, none of the rest of what you discuss will be compatible, so please take a look at this issue and decide where you stand.

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One Minute Moment: Lenses

We all see the world through a certain lens. This lens focuses our gaze to see certain things and miss others. A faithful person sees someone healed as a miracle, an atheist sees it as something we haven't yet been able to explain, or as random chance. People from this generation hear a story of their grandfather taking their old dogs for a "ride" with the dog never returning and see heartlessness, when they probably saw it the same way we see taking our broken computers to be recycled. Our lens colors everything, from what we see as right and wrong, to what brands we use. From the way we view history to who we turn to for advice. No matter what we do, everything we take in is colored by the perspective we have. So how do we see what really was there? We have two options: we can try to remove any effects of our lens, or we can try to use a different perspective and compare what we see. I see both as useful and we should try both when attempting to understand any tough issue. If we do, our vision will clear and we will be far closer to the real truth.

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One Minute Moment: Dizzy

The worlds spins
It always wins
The place I'm dying to see
Is never far
What you are
Is helping me to be
The better man
Yes I can
Feel what I need to feel
Here I am
Like a lamb
Whose feet are beginning to reel
Where to start
Inside my heart
I never knew what was there
Eyes wander
Thoughts ponder
I wonder if I could care
Staying awake
Flaying a steak
My mind cannot know the pain
There I go
Now I know
What it's like to walk in the rain

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One Minute Moment: Organization

Take a little thought experiment with me. What is the world made of? Molecules, atoms and mostly empty space. What are molecules and atoms made of? Protons, nuetrons, electrons and mostly empty space. (There are a few other particles as well, I just picked the main ones) Now, what are protons nuetrons and electrons made of? Current theory is quarks and...mostly empty space. Now, most quantum theorists suggest that at some point, there has to be a fundemental particle. Perhaps a string, ether, or some other theory. But so far, each time we've thought we found the unbreakable particle, we've found that wasn't the case. What if there is no fundamental particle and the trend mentioned above continues, ad infinitum. What are we then? We are simply this: organization. Nothing else. Matter would be an organizing force, but that's it. The rest is mostly empty space. To some this may seem scary, but to me it brings peace that I was organized, not created ex nihilo.

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One Minute Moment: Spring

Spring is here. Spring brings with it a renewing of life after the cold, dark winter. Blossoms and leaves spring from a world that almost appeared dead. Every year living things perform this great cycle. Let us remember how we as people go through similar cycles in life. We have periods of growth and loss, hard times that befall us all. When we have those hard times, let it not be to our despair, but remember that we can come back. The earth does it every year. The examples of many of the children on the earth in times past have done so as well. Let us never lose hope, but stand courageous in the face of adversity, taking our problems head on. You will be blessed with a firmer mind, a better disposition and a tear of joy when you endure well and faithfully the trials of your life.

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One Minute Moment: Falling

Falling was one of the most exciting times in my life. I spent most of my time running the rat race, trying to find that one comfortable place to stop and rest for a while. But occasionally I get to fly in the air, up to join my group until jump time. Then the thrill comes, reaching terminal velocity quickly, the air rushing past in a gale force. This beats the drudgery of sitting in heavy traffic along with a multitude of others, all going who knows where. It never stops, that procession. But when I get to come up for air, with the sun shining down, I could never ask for more. I love the trees too and other plants, don't get me wrong, they are a lot of fun. Animals are too, but I'm never truly free until I get in the air. I always dread touchdown though. It means I'll be on the ground for a long time. Or at the bottom of a lake or worse the ocean. But that's life as a water drop.

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One Minute Moment: Penny

Penny was a quiet girl. She never pushed or yelled or screamed for attention. When she was given a job to do, she did it, even if no one cared about her at the end. What gave Penny hope was that someday someone would see her for what she was and appreciate her. As it stands she never gets much by way of the things of the world. Maybe a few beans or some oatmeal. She used to be able to get much more. A piece of candy at the corner store. A ride to where one needed to go. People used to be happy to see her on the street. But now she's just one among millions. No one cares about a penny anymore.

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One Minute Moment: Waiting

I stood on the parapet, awaiting my trial. Where had time gone? It seemed like yesterday I was an innocent child, playing by the brook near our little home. When did things change? I think it happened slowly, over many years. My brothers and I used to laugh, but I don't think I've laughed in years. At least not in that carefree way I did as a child. Now I wait, hoping I can stand and defend myself. This old rock still stands after centuries. Perhaps I can take my strength from them. They persist just as I must. Did the one who built it believe it would stand as long as it has? What am I saying, one could never build this. It would take many. Hundreds and thousands perhaps. Oh well, he would never believe what was happening now. What was my crime? I wrote a word. It may seem strange to someone outside these walls, but yes, that is my crime. Who knows if I will live to see another dawn as the crime is punishable by death. Oh how far down the road we've come. But alas it is too late for us. We gave our freedoms for what we thought would make us happy. Instead we gain misery, and thoughtless living. I hope we may break free, but our passion is neutered. What was the word I wrote you may ask? "God"

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One Minute Moment: Sin vs Temptation

If a person breaks the law, standard practice is a punishment affixed to that law. This law breaking is sin. Temptation is the open opportunity to sin. Sin is an undesireable action in society and for the individual. Though some may be pushed to say the same for temptation, look at what happens when someone never has the opportunity for choice. When you cannot make decisions for yourself, you develop an Ophelia Complex. Your choices become dependent on the assertions of others and you are not your own. You become something to be acted upon instead of something to act. So while sin is undesirable, temptation is necesary to produce viable men and women in society. Strength comes in overcoming.

Now to change gears and apply this to a troubling modern day issue: people being punished for saying things. Now sometimes the sin is actually the words we say, such as in verbal abuse and bullying. But when our words are instead the temptation, then we must allow those words to be said, for they are a necesary part of a functioning society. When someone acts on their words is when it crosses the line from sin to temptation. So please stop trying to punish people for words. Punish them for their deeds.

One side note: To those who do not believe in sin or God's laws, you do have a set of laws in place whether you like it or not. Measure yourself by that law.

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One Minute Moment: Living for Liberty

How does a man become a bastion of truth
Is it when he's old? Does it come in his youth?
Does it come from within? Does it come from without?
From whom does he get the strength to be stout?
Some say it's a lie, no one really stands firm
When push comes to shove he'll back down like a worm
But I know of strength, born in a man
And backed by his God, he is willing to stand
They go hand in hand, Truth and Liberty
For as you may know, the truth makes you free
To stand as a rock of freedom for all
One must stand for truth, or he's liable to fall
Have we lost that desire? To truly be free?
I don't care if it's true we say in agony
I just want to be loved, forget all the past
But lest we forget, that really can't last
Not when good men don't stand, to take our beating
If we don't fight for peace, it truly is fleeting
We must stand selfless, forgetting our needs
Or we will be vanquished, brought down to our knees
To beg for deliverence, whatever the cost
By then it's too late, our freedom is lost.
So stand with me now, for you are my brother
Though we may be strange to each other
So come and be one, won't you now join with me
Stand shoulder to shoulder and Live for Liberty

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One Minute Moment: Choices and Consequences

Choices & Consequences

We all make choices. To every choice there is a consequence. I am trying to teach this to my daughter. If you lean too far in the chair it falls over. If you wipe your jam hands on your shirt it gets dirty. If you don't eat dinner you'll be hungry later. She has a hard time understanding this concept and fights against it often.
Now on to us as adults: much of modern life is taken up with breaking that link and allowing you to choose something without that natural consequence. If you eat too much with no exercise, the natural consequence is you gain weight. The modern day solution is to find ways to take away a natural consequence through no calorie sweeteners, diet pills, low/no fat foods etc. The natural consequences of wanton sex are babies and STDs. Birth control and condoms are working on unhinging those consequences. Cheating at school and in financial matters is another area in which this occurs. The goal of cheating in school is to take away the bad grades which are a natural consequence of not learning the material. Cheating in financial matters allows people to unhinge the consequences of bankruptcy and loss from fiscal irresponsibility.
So next time you're making a decision, please remember what the natural consequences are and be sure you're not just trying to cheat the system.

(Writer's note: I'm not against birth control, but I am for its wise use.)

One Minute Moment: Surveillance

So many people have no problem with surveillance. It helps us see what's going on, catch criminals in the act and ensure peace. After all, I'm not doing anything wrong, so why should I worry? The reason you should be concerned is this: surveillance and remote identification violates the principle of innocent until proven guilty. It takes the burden of proof off the accuser and onto the one accused. Red light cameras are a good example. No matter what, the owner of the car gets a ticket, even if they were not driving it at the time. It could have been a friend. It could have been stolen. They could have been having a baby. But you still get the ticket unless you can prove any of those things. It makes you guilty until proven innocent. So be careful what you wish for.

One Minute Moment: Forgun Decision

Forgun sat thinking, waiting on that log. What do I choose? My friend is taken. I'd have to fight against overwhelming odds, or sneak into the center of all those who despise me. Surely someone would notice. I'd be taken too. We both would be lost. But could I ever forgive myself if I give in now? Could I look at my face and not be ashamed? Who will save her if I do not? No one else knows she's gone. Would anyone else miss her? Is it worth the risk? Could I stand alone against thousands of my enemies and not quail? Fear drives me back, faith and hope drive me forward. Which would I rather let rule me? I will go and face what I can for my friend. Would I not hope for the same?
Forgun stood and left his fears behind.

Intro

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One Minute Moments:Introduction

Welcome to the Jade Shepherd's One Minute Moments. Each will be a short story or insight to get teach you something. The main point of these is to get you to get a new perspective, or help you interpret the world around you. So please, with each post you read, think about it and see if it helps you understand something a little bit better.

Each One Minute Moment will take less than a minute to read, giving you a quick gem for your day.

A quick caveat- these will mostly be written while I'm on the bus, often without even know how they will finish, so there may be unverified facts or observations, so if you see something you disagree with or think may be false, please comment below. If you like something, or were able to use a One Minute Moment during your day, please comment below.

I will try to write daily. On Sunday's you may notice a spiritual theme. Thanks for listening.

A Letter to My Washington State Legislators

This is a letter I wrote to my legislators regarding SB6329. Anyone who reads this, I urge you to take a good look at where you stand on this issue, taking these views into account.

 

Dear Legislator,

 

I would like to first begin by saying that I am against unjust discrimination in all its forms. Second, I would like to bring forward the issues I have with the bill as it now stands:

1. It attempts to change the true meaning of the English language.

2. It undermines marriage as an independent family unit.

3. It attempts to turn a social agreement into a civil right.

4. It attempts to legitimize unsustainable practices.

5. It assumes that there is discrimination in the current laws where there is none.

 

I will defend each point in turn:

1. The law states that the terms husband and wife will be construed as gender neutral. The roots of the term wife means woman in its original form. To force it to lose its gender specificity, you are undermining our language's foundation, which, as a fundamental pillar of society, destabilizes said society.

2. Marriage, as originally conceived, was to solemnize the creation of a new, independent family unit. By the laws of nature, a same-sex couple cannot independently bring children into this world, which is by definition what a living unit is: a living unit can reproduce itself. Same-sex couples cannot do this, and so they cannot call themselves marriage.

3. Marriage has never been a civil right. It has always been a social agreement between a husband and wife, so attempting to turn a social contract into an inalienable right is counter-intuitive. Same-sex couples are not deprived of any of their inalienable rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. In fact, one could argue that liberty (the right to independence from outside influences) is undermined by being in a same-sex relationship per argument #2.

4. This state is constantly pushing itself toward sustainable practices, but a same-sex couple is anything but. They, as a whole, cannot reproduce, never have been and never will be unless they have serious intervention on their behalf from science and/or someone of the opposite sex. If you believe in sustainable practices, you will not support this bill.

5. Even in the face of all these arguments, the fact remains that marriage has never been deprived from any group in this state. All adult persons are able to get married as the law currently stands, with all the rights and privileges that come with it. They simply need to conform to the gender specificness of that law. Now some may say that is unfair, and that they cannot comply with that portion. To those I say, can you also choose which parts of other laws you can or cannot comply with? If a person suffers from impulsive stealing, does that mean we should allow such acts in those instances, or, taking the stance of this bill, that we should repeal or change all laws related to stealing to accommodate said persons? What of the many other acts and behaviors that are currently illegal, but it could be proved scientifically that in some cases, the person could not help but commit those acts or behaviors? Should we allow our laws, designed to manage peace to be changed by an ever-shifting minority? Where do you make a stand? Or do we constantly retreat, hoping someday the minority will stop calling out for justice where there already is justice? I tell you it will never stop until you make a stand. And even then it will come back unless you stand firm in true principles.

 

Please, take a stand and vote against this proposition. If you can find any faults in my logic, please bring them to light. However, if you ignore these arguments, and brush them aside without a moment's thought, you are practicing bigotry in its purest form. I and many others in this state will continue to fight for this cause with all our energy and commitment.

 

Thank You.

 

I stand,

 

A Concerned Citizen

Why Belief in God Matters

No matter what we say, every single one of us follows a god or gods in our lives. We all have a system of beliefs or principles that we follow. Where do we get those from? Wherever we get those principles becomes our god. When we follow the ideals proceding forth from that god we are worshipping it.
Some people worship the god of the human mind. Some follow the god of mother earth.
Some follow the god of commercialism.
Some worship Allah.
Some worship the God of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob.
Some are self worshippers, following their wealth, body or abilities.
In this understanding many of us are actually polytheistic, worshipping one god when we want, then turning and serving another master.
The problem for our society comes when many stop serving an unchangeable(or at least slow to change) god and start worshipping a fickle one. When moral rules are constantly shifting, the base of society is weak, and we are building our house upon the sand.
I urge you, find a set of morals built on a rock, write them down and strive to live by them.

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